Positive signals continue to arrive from the Italian real estate market: in 2018 the sales were up 6.7% compared to 2017. On the price side, in the second part of 2018, some companies recorded a slowdown. There seems to be a sort of” real estate selection “taking place with cities particularly attractions in which prices grow and realities in which the conditions for this to happen are still far away “.
Real estate demand is lively both as a principal residence and as an investment but the offer starts to shrink, especially in the big cities, with the consequence that sales times are further reduced. In fact, the latest figures give them around 129 days in the big cities, 163 days in the hinterland of the latter and 152 days in the provincial capitals. In one year they have been reduced by an average of one week. The cities where the buildings sell faster are Bologna with 94 days and Milan with 100 days. It takes more time, 173 days, to place the building in Bari. In the second half of 2018 the houses recorded an increase of 0.7% in the big cities and a decrease of 0.6 in the provincial capitals and 0.5% in the hinterland of the big cities. Only this last reality has reported an improvement trend compared to the previous semester. Among the big cities, once again, it is Bologna that scores the most important price increase (+ 6.2%), followed by Milan (+ 4.4%), Verona (+ 1.8%), Florence ( + 1.0%) and Naples (+ 0.5%). Turin reports stability. In Bari, Genoa, Naples, Palermo and Rome the price trend has worsened compared to what was recorded in the previous half year. In the entire 2018 there was an excellent performance in Bologna (+ 11.1%) and Milan (+ 8.4%). Central areas once again performed better than semi-central and peripheral areas. However, the latter have given satisfactory results precisely in the cities where prices are growing most (Bologna and Milan), with a return of the buying trend in the suburbs where the real estate market, although recovering, is still accessible. In terms of geographical areas, southern cities performed better, with a contraction of 0.4%, followed by those in the north (-0.7%) and the center (-0.8%). The analysis of the requests is new: the three-room apartment remains the most sought-after type (41%) but the studios and apartments are advancing following the increase in prices and the greater interest of investors. Milan is the only one among the big cities, where the two-room apartment prevails over the other types, while Bologna is the one that shows a greater increase in the percentage of requests for studios and two-room apartments, thus reinforcing the signals that confirm the attention of investors for the city Emilian. Also interesting are the results on the availability of expenditure which see a greater concentration in the lower spending bracket (up to € 120 thousand) but an increase in the range between € 250 and € 349 thousand. The latter was particularly sensitive in Milan, Bologna and Florence. The analysis of the offer shows that in the major Italian cities the most common type is the three-room apartment (32.8%), followed by the four rooms with 25.2%.
The analysis of sales at the Italian level shows that 75.4% of transactions focus on the main house, 18.4% on the investment house and 6.2% on the holiday home. The investment component for investment use in Naples (40.9%) and Verona (30.8%) is particularly high, a city in which investment for tourism purposes has taken hold. In general, it is noted that real estate investment still attracts capital thanks to gross annual returns of around 4.9%. Rents continue to rise: in the second half of 2018 there was an increase of 2.3% in the studios, 2.0% in the two-room apartments and 2.6% in the three-room apartments. Bologna, Milan and Verona are among the cities that record the largest increase in rents determined by lively demand, which corresponds to an increasingly small offer. This, in some cities, is linked to the advance of tourist locations, a phenomenon with which real estate operators have been confronting for several semesters. 57% of those who rented a house did so for their main residence, 9.4% for study reasons and 33.6% for work-related reasons. The use of the transitional contract is increasing.
In 2019 the real estate market will record a trend in line with that of the year just ended. Volumes that can also be confirmed for the current year. At the level of prices, in the big cities, there will be a slight rise (between + 1% and + 3%). The smaller and intermediate realities, such as the municipalities of the hinterland and provincial capitals, will be dynamic in terms of transactions but rather stable in terms of values, with a possible exception of the first belt of the great metropolises, influenced by the trend of the latter . An assessment of the real estate future cannot be separated from the performance of the credit sector and the economy in general. Mortgages will still remain favorable and the credit market will not differ much from the 2018 results. Trust for the future of the economy and employment will be important for the future of the real estate market.
26th march 2019
Monitor Immobiliare.it
by G.I 26.3.19